Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019

Abstract. Climate change projections indicate that extreme snowfall is expected to increase in cold areas, i.e., at high latitudes and/or elevation, and decrease warmer mid-latitudes low elevation. However, the magnitude of these contrasting patterns their precise relations elevation scale a given mountain range remain poorly known. This study analyzes annual maxima daily based on SAFRAN reanalysis spanning time period 1959–2019 provided within 23 massifs French Alps every 300 m We estimate temporal trends 100-year return levels with non-stationary value models depend both time. Specifically, for each massif four ranges (below 1000, 1000–2000, 2000–3000, above 3000 m), are estimated best selected basis Akaike information criterion. Our results show majority decreasing below 2000 increasing m. Quantitatively, we find an between 1959 2019 equal +23 % (+32kgm-2) average 3500 −10 (-7kgm-2) 500 ranges, depending location. In particular, observe spatially pattern, exemplified 2500 m: have decreased north while they increased south, which may result from interactions overall warming trend circulation patterns. has implications natural hazard management regions.